Dr. Ranga Chelva Krishna
COVID-19 or The Coronavirus Pandemic as fondly referred to has made landfall in 188 countries in 6-months. Some of the countries affected the greatest are China, the original developing site of COVID as well as other densely populated and highly travelled countries such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and India.
To date there are a documented 10,848,241 cases of COVID across the 188-countries it has been found in, with approximately 520,000 deaths. As of July no vaccine or confirmed “cure” exists for COVID, leading many analysts to expect the United States alone to have over 230,000 deaths by October, and globally over 1.2 million.
The economic impact of COVID has been quickly felt across the world alongside these cases with significant impacts on stock markets, employment rates, real GDP growth, and consumer confidence.
- The DOW Jones has fallen -13.3% to date, the FTSE 100 -19.3%, and the Nikkei -5.2%; these losses being the first major losses for many in several years of economic prosperity.
- Unemployment rates have grown in the United States to over 10.5%, Italy 12.7%, France 10.4%, Canada 7.5%, and The U.K 5%.
- Real GDP has contracted on average by 5% across the globe with travel and tourism dependent countries contracting on average over 10%.
- Consumer Confidence on average has shrunk by 30% with some countries enforcing quarantines and business closures seeing reductions over 50% such as the United States(-52%), Canada(-72%), The U.K.(-78%), and Mexico (-80%)
- Consumer spending following COVID has shrunk by an average of 30 percent in the food services and accommodations categories with other categories such as Transportation, Healthcare Services, and Recreation falling on average 20%.
Due to the above indicators we at Rising Sun Holdings, INC have two posed forecasts:
Our primary forecast is that we believe Q3/Q4 globally will show continued signs of COVID leading to slowed growth in Q3 and Q4 following a total Q1/Q2 contraction of at least 45%. Current estimates point to growing consumer spending and confidence as quarantines and lock-downs are lifted, with foreign travel being slowly initiated across the globe. Our current expectations are that Q3 rebound growth will be approximately 25% with slower growth in Q4 as countries such as the United States begin to completely reopen and resume travel and all prior activities.
Our second posed forecast is if COVID proves more resilient and forces countries such as The United States & The U.K. to close borders and businesses again due to an unexpected wave of infections. It is in this instance that we believe Q3/Q4 will be significantly more bleak with sharp declines in Q4 of greater than 10% after a small growth period of approximately 10% in Q3 due to temporary business activities. In this scenario we believe GDP growth will be slowed throughout early 2021 with recoveries in late Q3/Q4 2021.
COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning. (n.d.). Retrieved July 2, 2020, from
 (Coronavirus Update (Live): 10,848,241 Cases and 519,946 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic – Worldometer, n.d.)
 (COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning, n.d.)
 (Coronavirus: A visual guide to the economic impact, 2020)
 (Real GDP Growth:Annual Percent Change, n.d.)
 (United States Consumer Sentiment | 1952-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar, n.d.)
 (United States Economic Forecast, n.d.)